LOS ANGELES, California, August 18, 2026 — The East Bay got hit by a freight train in mid-April when Eric Swalwell quit Congress with no warning. On April 12, confronted with a slew of sexual misconduct accusations, he withdrew from the California governor’s race and submitted his congressional resignation less than twenty-four hours later. Not Gov. Gavin Newsom, who offered up a campaign almost immediately. He then swiftly announced a special primary to replace him in June for the balance of his term, which runs through January 2027.
Initially, party chieftains sought to make a hush-hush move to install an interim caretaker plan through former state Sen. Bob Wieckowski. That effort collapsed fast. That prompted an open, competitive primary, as state Sen. Aisha Wahab flatly rejected stepping aside. The official voter resources are hosted on the Federal Election Commission website, but special election filings are a whole different, and the Tri-Valley district, which includes Livermore, Pleasanton, Hayward and parts of Fremont, is uncharted territory.
Primary Surprises and Turnout Dynamics
By June, Wahab was off to the races, pulling approximately 43% of the vote. Melissa Hernandez, a BART board member, came in a distant second with just close to 17%. Now, here is the thing: Tea Party groups and conservative organizers are quietly trying to rally behind Hernandez to stop a progressive takeover in a low-turnout summer contest. Serving up major advantages with organized labor unions as well as local Democratic Party infrastructure, Wahab, who made history as the first Muslim and Afghan American elected to California’s state Senate.
However, Hernandez has also raised an impressive cash war chest — outspending Wahab nearly three-to-one since July 1. But not even all the money in the world can make a difference in the face of huge turnout drop-offs, though Rep. Jim Costa and a host of Alameda County officials have rallied behind Hernandez. Organizers privately say they find an August special runoff impossible to forecast. Voting closed at 3 P.M. but by —irony alert— three hours in, precincts reported empty tables. It’s a ghost town out there.
Two Concurrent Elections Cause Confusion
In a confusing double-ballot dynamic this year, voters in the district must contend with unprecedented electoral outcomes. Voters choose Tuesday who will immediately fill the state’s vacant seat, with new or old district lines, for the rest of the 119th Congress. And the borders for the November general election were redrawn by Proposition 50. Wahab and Hernandez are both running for both races. Their contest Tuesday is a sort of high stakes, real-world dress rehearsal.
That same scenario — a long and slow, trickle-in ballot count stretched over days — is typical of California’s vote-by-mail system, and will be what election workers will encounter in November. The national focus on other races means low turnout could make the national numbers a bit tricky.
