LOS ANGELES, October 7, 2026 – Exactly two weeks prior to the distribution of ballots to the basins of the city, the struggle for City Hall has descended into a frantic and ruthless street fight from block to block.
The difficult task that started for Councilmember Nithya Raman, as she was running against the incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, has transformed into a cut-throat struggle for the office. The entire outcome of the runoff now appears to hang by a massive shift that is taking place among the Latinos in East Los Angeles and San Fernando Valley.
As per the poll results of the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, Raman enjoys a slight lead among likely Latino voters, with her share coming in at 45%, while that of Bass comes in at 21%. However, the difference gets even sharper along the generation lines, with Raman leading 60% to 9% among Latino voters between ages 18 and 49.
However, even the lead looks impressive; almost a third of the Latino voters, i.e., 34%, remain undecided.
And that’s where things get complicated.
In a city in which working families are struggling against continued rent issues and stagnant wages, neither of the two candidates can risk writing off an Eastside district for granted. Having built her campaign message around her long experience with organizing and her well-connected labor unions, Bass has been emphasizing her track record of stability, both housing stability and public safety. She sees herself as the hands-on manager of a $13 billion city budget.
Raman’s campaign strategy relies on a different strain of voter frustration. With a campaign centered on tenant protections, urban reform, and an expansion of the number of 911 units that address mental health crises unarmed in the city, she’s been able to gain quite a bit of momentum from younger, progressive Latino voters who believe City Hall should be going faster.
Yet, converting early poll numbers into actual votes on Election Day is a whole different beast.
Unaffiliated voters in working-class precincts do not always get convinced by endorsements or ideological discussions taking place in the city center. What they need is solutions to their problems: Will there be an increase in their rent next summer? Are the neighborhood parks safe at night? How long will the pothole on Cesar Chavez Avenue go unattended?
As TV advertising budgets swell and campaign offices work around the clock, both candidates are spending huge amounts on micro-targeted radio advertisements and door-to-door campaigning. It remains to be seen whether Bass can win back her usual support base or whether Raman’s success will continue to November, but one thing is clear—the path to the mayoralty goes right through the Latino neighborhoods of Los Angeles.
